The OECD said conflict in the Middle East has become the dominant force shaping the global economic outlook in 2026, with curtailed energy exports pushing up inflation and weighing on growth.
The organization revised growth projections downward while warning that prolonged disruption could intensify price pressures into 2027, creating difficult trade-offs for central banks.
Despite the shock, analysts note underlying momentum from AI-related investment and improved financial conditions in some regions.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2026
